MODEL VERDICT
Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $31.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $31.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $33.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $32.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $32.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $32.78 | +4.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $30.54 | -2.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $22.97 | -26.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $32.88 | +5.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $42.38 | +35.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $37.51 | +20.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $24.34 | -22.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $23.49 | -24.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.93 | +8.5% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $36 | $39 |
| Conservative (16%) | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
| Base Case (23.8%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 |
| Bull Case (32%) | $34 | $37 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.06 | 27.20 | 20.61 | 48.18 | 10.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.80 | 27.71 | 22.32 | 39.73 | 6.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.13 | 19.05 | 16.17 | 22.24 | 2.58 |
| P/FCF | 18.00 | 17.96 | 15.11 | 21.10 | 2.62 |
| P/FFO | 17.44 | 17.04 | 13.41 | 21.95 | 3.43 |
| P/TBV | 1.49 | 1.46 | 1.28 | 1.73 | 0.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.44 | 1.42 | 1.28 | 1.66 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.22 | 12.32 | 10.64 | 14.71 | 1.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates EPRT's fair value at $33.93 vs the current price of $31.27, implying +8.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.41 (P10) to $34.89 (P90), with a median of $32.61.
EPRT's current P/E of 24.4x compares to the industry median of 33.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -26.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
22 analysts cover EPRT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.50 (range: $33.00 — $40.00), implying +16.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (17), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EPRT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (41.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2290.0% to approximately $38. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.