MODEL VERDICT
East West Bancorp, Inc. (EWBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $125.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $122.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $118.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $117.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $115.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $112.81 | -10.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $73.66 | -41.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $89.93 | -28.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $85.18 | -32.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $112.78 | -10.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $112.42 | -10.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $102.08 | -18.9% | 100% | 97 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $92 | $113 | $133 | $154 | $174 |
| Conservative (12%) | $96 | $118 | $139 | $161 | $182 |
| Base Case (19.1%) | $102 | $125 | $147 | $170 | $193 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $108 | $132 | $156 | $180 | $204 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.95 | 11.50 | 8.32 | 12.90 | 1.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.87 | 7.02 | 4.49 | 10.34 | 1.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.00 | 6.12 | 4.03 | 8.92 | 1.68 |
| P/FCF | 8.80 | 9.69 | 4.55 | 10.50 | 2.18 |
| P/FFO | 9.25 | 9.75 | 7.29 | 10.94 | 1.39 |
| P/TBV | 1.74 | 1.70 | 1.51 | 2.10 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 10.13 | 10.58 | 8.81 | 11.00 | 1.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.61 | 1.57 | 1.38 | 1.93 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.70 | 3.41 | 2.59 | 5.96 | 1.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates EWBC's fair value at $102.08 vs the current price of $125.82, implying -18.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $102.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $93.71 (P10) to $107.78 (P90), with a median of $100.58.
EWBC's current P/E of 13.2x compares to the industry median of 11.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +11.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
24 analysts cover EWBC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $130.67 (range: $123.00 — $150.00), implying +3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EWBC trades at the 3810th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EWBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 80.0% to approximately $125. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.