MODEL VERDICT
European Wax Center, Inc. (EWCZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 19 analyst estimates | $10.76 | +169.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 19 industry peers | $13.21 | +230.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 16 industry peers | $5.55 | +38.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 20 industry peers | $25.13 | +528.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 19 industry peers | $12.29 | +207.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 20 industry peers | $22.16 | +454.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $3.45 | -13.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $9.10 | +127.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $5.54 | +38.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 20 industry peers | $25.13 | +528.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.12 | +278.0% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 59.81 | 69.17 | 30.32 | 79.94 | 26.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.55 | 21.73 | 15.20 | 51.54 | 16.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.66 | 14.61 | 9.46 | 27.97 | 7.95 |
| P/FCF | 15.76 | 11.81 | 5.58 | 33.82 | 12.40 |
| P/FFO | 23.06 | 20.47 | 10.17 | 41.14 | 13.16 |
| P/AFFO | 23.52 | 20.87 | 10.35 | 42.00 | 13.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.10 | 3.62 | 3.28 | 5.86 | 1.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.29 | 2.73 | 1.44 | 6.27 | 2.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EWCZ's fair value at $15.12 vs the current price of $4.00, implying +278.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.94 (P10) to $17.18 (P90), with a median of $14.47.
EWCZ's current P/E of 18.2x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (16 peers in the group). This represents a -27.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 59.8x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
8 analysts cover EWCZ with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.63 (range: $3.75 — $5.50), implying +15.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EWCZ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.