MODEL VERDICT
LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $7.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $7.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $6.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $6.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $6.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $1.58 | -79.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $3.07 | -59.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $0.53 | -93.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $4.57 | -39.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $1.16 | -84.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $6.82 | -9.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $7.58 | +0.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $4.57 | -39.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $0.52 | -93.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $4.38 | -41.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.13 | -58.4% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 316× | 346× | 376× (Current) | 406× | 436× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B Ratio | 1.79 | 1.93 | 1.16 | 2.02 | 0.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.72 | 2.23 | 1.93 | 4.67 | 1.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates LFST's fair value at $3.13 vs the current price of $7.53, implying -58.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.49 (P10) to $4.51 (P90), with a median of $3.46.
LFST's current P/E of 376.5x compares to the industry median of 26.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +1315.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover LFST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.30 (range: $8.00 — $11.00), implying +23.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LFST.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.