MODEL VERDICT
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $147.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $147.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $147.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $144.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $143.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $166.87 | +13.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $137.79 | -6.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $235.97 | +60.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $217.27 | +47.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $249.05 | +69.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $297.65 | +102.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $153.95 | +4.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $118.07 | -19.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $85.52 | -41.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $234.67 | +59.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $305.05 | +107.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $211.36 | +43.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $129 | $141 | $153 | $166 | $178 |
| Conservative (5%) | $131 | $144 | $156 | $169 | $181 |
| Base Case (7.9%) | $135 | $148 | $161 | $173 | $186 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $138 | $151 | $165 | $178 | $191 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.71 | 23.01 | 12.58 | 25.39 | 4.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.85 | 15.85 | 8.54 | 19.28 | 3.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.21 | 15.20 | 8.28 | 17.98 | 3.51 |
| P/FCF | 20.66 | 21.29 | 8.36 | 27.63 | 6.45 |
| P/FFO | 19.31 | 21.19 | 12.08 | 23.32 | 4.24 |
| P/TBV | 6.88 | 6.59 | 5.50 | 8.64 | 1.11 |
| P/AFFO | 20.43 | 22.87 | 12.87 | 24.84 | 4.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.86 | 6.57 | 5.49 | 8.61 | 1.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.60 | 1.70 | 1.00 | 2.05 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXPD's fair value at $211.36 vs the current price of $147.23, implying +43.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $211.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $154.99 (P10) to $198.46 (P90), with a median of $176.26.
EXPD's current P/E of 24.7x compares to the industry median of 39.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -37.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
33 analysts cover EXPD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $140.13 (range: $95.00 — $166.00), implying -4.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (20), Sell (9), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EXPD trades at the 4170th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EXPD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1730.0% to approximately $173. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.