MODEL VERDICT
Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. (FBIN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $39.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $41.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $40.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $38.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $40.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $65.21 | +63.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $64.85 | +62.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $80.10 | +100.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $87.46 | +119.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $80.34 | +101.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $76.51 | +91.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $53.27 | +33.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $100.85 | +152.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $105.23 | +163.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $78.69 | +97.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $82.63 | +107.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.47 | +69.0% | 100% | 90 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27 | $34 | $42 | $50 | $57 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $35 | $43 | $51 | $59 |
| Base Case (4.2%) | $27 | $35 | $43 | $51 | $59 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $28 | $36 | $44 | $51 | $59 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.96 | 18.22 | 10.92 | 24.02 | 4.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.10 | 15.20 | 11.16 | 21.55 | 3.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.91 | 11.85 | 9.16 | 17.18 | 3.05 |
| P/FCF | 17.41 | 15.61 | 10.47 | 26.86 | 5.91 |
| P/FFO | 12.61 | 13.26 | 8.54 | 16.96 | 3.00 |
| P/AFFO | 17.94 | 17.43 | 11.86 | 30.69 | 6.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.52 | 3.60 | 2.18 | 4.24 | 0.69 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.90 | 1.86 | 0.87 | 2.84 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FBIN's fair value at $67.47 vs the current price of $39.91, implying +69.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.61 (P10) to $78.44 (P90), with a median of $72.44.
FBIN's current P/E of 10.6x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -50.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
27 analysts cover FBIN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $59.83 (range: $46.00 — $70.00), implying +49.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (9), Hold (15), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FBIN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 21770.0% to approximately $127. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.