MODEL VERDICT
First Bancorp (FBNC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $57.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $58.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $59.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $58.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $58.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $37.98 | -34.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $47.02 | -18.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $47.77 | -17.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $31.66 | -45.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $37.98 | -34.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $50.96 | -11.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.05 | -25.5% | 100% | 90 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $49 | $55 | $60 | $66 | $71 |
| Conservative (5%) | $51 | $56 | $62 | $68 | $73 |
| Base Case (-0.9%) | $48 | $53 | $58 | $64 | $69 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $48 | $53 | $58 | $63 | $69 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.71 | 14.74 | 10.40 | 23.90 | 4.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.91 | 12.18 | 6.17 | 14.06 | 2.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.73 | 10.63 | 5.45 | 13.11 | 2.63 |
| P/FCF | 14.05 | 12.00 | 6.78 | 24.86 | 6.51 |
| P/FFO | 13.54 | 12.35 | 9.42 | 19.31 | 3.73 |
| P/TBV | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.53 | 2.33 | 0.24 |
| P/AFFO | 14.29 | 12.81 | 9.74 | 19.87 | 3.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.10 | 1.48 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.68 | 3.75 | 2.82 | 5.01 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FBNC's fair value at $43.05 vs the current price of $57.79, implying -25.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.89 (P10) to $48.03 (P90), with a median of $44.91.
FBNC's current P/E of 21.6x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +52.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover FBNC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $63.00 (range: $62.00 — $64.00), implying +9.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (9), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FBNC trades at the 9330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FBNC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1110.0% to approximately $51. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.