MODEL VERDICT
FTI Consulting, Inc. (FCN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $173.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $184.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $179.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $179.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $176.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $136.40 | -21.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $150.14 | -13.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $172.08 | -1.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $67.70 | -61.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $159.16 | -8.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $75.98 | -56.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $79.21 | -54.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $173.89 | +0.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $176.33 | +1.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $172.02 | -1.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $67.49 | -61.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $141.90 | -18.4% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $141 | $158 | $176 | $193 | $211 |
| Conservative (6%) | $143 | $161 | $179 | $197 | $215 |
| Base Case (8.4%) | $147 | $166 | $184 | $203 | $221 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $152 | $170 | $189 | $208 | $227 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.39 | 23.07 | 19.45 | 25.83 | 2.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.72 | 17.25 | 14.09 | 18.93 | 1.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.83 | 15.37 | 12.61 | 16.60 | 1.74 |
| P/FCF | 27.36 | 23.95 | 14.20 | 41.94 | 11.55 |
| P/FFO | 18.91 | 19.36 | 16.36 | 22.04 | 2.29 |
| P/TBV | 15.53 | 13.26 | 6.75 | 33.54 | 8.77 |
| P/AFFO | 22.29 | 23.40 | 17.24 | 26.04 | 3.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.19 | 3.14 | 2.83 | 3.58 | 0.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.44 | 2.03 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FCN's fair value at $141.90 vs the current price of $173.82, implying -18.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $141.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $136.84 (P10) to $159.30 (P90), with a median of $148.01.
FCN's current P/E of 20.4x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +1.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
13 analysts cover FCN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $166.00 (range: $165.00 — $167.00), implying -4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FCN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7470.0% to approximately $304. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.