MODEL VERDICT
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $1985.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $1931.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $2030.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $1987.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $1989.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $2270.49 | +14.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $2382.45 | +20.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $3049.44 | +53.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $494.75 | -75.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $2267.95 | +14.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $2043.61 | +2.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2350.74 | +18.4% | 100% | 93 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $1477 | $1846 | $2215 | $2584 | $2953 |
| Conservative (19%) | $1571 | $1964 | $2356 | $2749 | $3142 |
| Base Case (28.4%) | $1703 | $2128 | $2554 | $2980 | $3405 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $1834 | $2292 | $2751 | $3209 | $3668 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.09 | 12.09 | 1.81 | 15.40 | 4.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.95 | 11.62 | 0.68 | 14.12 | 5.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.63 | 9.56 | 0.56 | 12.34 | 4.72 |
| P/FCF | 15.58 | 14.86 | 6.32 | 23.77 | 6.27 |
| P/FFO | 8.67 | 10.08 | 1.81 | 11.81 | 3.33 |
| P/TBV | 1.45 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.87 | 0.33 |
| P/AFFO | 13.47 | 13.97 | 2.07 | 22.09 | 6.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.36 | 1.36 | 0.97 | 1.72 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.63 | 2.31 | 1.63 | 4.29 | 0.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FCNCA's fair value at $2350.74 vs the current price of $1985.39, implying +18.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2350.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2024.61 (P10) to $2381.50 (P90), with a median of $2200.07.
FCNCA's current P/E of 12.0x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -12.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
11 analysts cover FCNCA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2234.20 (range: $2050.00 — $2346.00), implying +12.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FCNCA trades at the 3400th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FCNCA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (31.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9250.0% to approximately $3822. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.