MODEL VERDICT
Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc. (FDBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $53.37 | +12.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $45.27 | -4.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $48.36 | +1.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $62.94 | +32.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $53.37 | +12.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.66 | +17.2% | 100% | 90 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $33 | $40 | $48 | $55 | $62 |
| Conservative (5%) | $34 | $42 | $49 | $57 | $64 |
| Base Case (3.5%) | $34 | $41 | $48 | $56 | $63 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $34 | $41 | $49 | $57 | $64 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.04 | 18.19 | 8.91 | 22.82 | 5.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.88 | 15.75 | 7.60 | 25.44 | 6.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.99 | 12.14 | 6.62 | 20.67 | 5.34 |
| P/FCF | 22.46 | 12.95 | 6.10 | 67.63 | 22.93 |
| P/FFO | 13.30 | 13.87 | 7.59 | 17.35 | 3.72 |
| P/TBV | 1.97 | 1.89 | 1.54 | 2.61 | 0.36 |
| P/AFFO | 16.71 | 18.36 | 9.00 | 23.28 | 5.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.84 | 1.75 | 1.38 | 2.60 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.94 | 3.97 | 2.25 | 5.55 | 1.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates FDBC's fair value at $55.66 vs the current price of $47.48, implying +17.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.31 (P10) to $63.16 (P90), with a median of $57.08.
FDBC's current P/E of 13.2x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -11.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
No analyst coverage data is available for FDBC.
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FDBC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.