MODEL VERDICT
Ferrovial SE (FER)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $66.89 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $70.42 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $68.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $69.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $72.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $31.08 | -53.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $66.40 | -0.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $57.11 | -14.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $48.08 | -28.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $31.67 | -52.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $46.83 | -30.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $10.60 | -84.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $17.02 | -74.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $57.11 | -14.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $47.78 | -28.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.74 | -25.6% | 100% | 70 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $50 | $55 | $60 | $65 | $70 |
| Conservative (7%) | $51 | $56 | $62 | $67 | $72 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $53 | $58 | $64 | $69 | $74 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $54 | $60 | $66 | $71 | $77 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.50 | 50.30 | 9.47 | 100.72 | 34.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 43.44 | 30.78 | 9.12 | 138.21 | 43.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.05 | 31.80 | 10.53 | 56.66 | 16.01 |
| P/FCF | 24.32 | 22.34 | 20.09 | 29.33 | 3.85 |
| P/FFO | 28.64 | 31.85 | 8.33 | 48.67 | 15.11 |
| P/TBV | 4.69 | 4.56 | 3.18 | 6.53 | 1.16 |
| P/AFFO | 42.43 | 42.77 | 8.87 | 88.63 | 29.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.32 | 4.29 | 2.87 | 6.07 | 1.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.35 | 3.25 | 2.41 | 4.83 | 0.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates FER's fair value at $49.74 vs the current price of $66.89, implying -25.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.95 (P10) to $72.24 (P90), with a median of $57.81.
FER's current P/E of 46.7x compares to the industry median of 46.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +0.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 50.5x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
2 analysts cover FER with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $70.93 (range: $70.93 — $70.93), implying +6.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 36.0% is 18.3 percentage points above the 6-year average (16.6%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$29. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FER's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (16.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5720.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.