MODEL VERDICT
First Horizon Corporation (FHN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $24.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $24.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $24.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $24.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $24.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $26.61 | +6.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $25.69 | +3.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $27.85 | +11.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $23.91 | -3.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $26.61 | +6.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $24.65 | -1.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.47 | -1.7% | 100% | 87 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 | $33 |
| Conservative (5%) | $18 | $22 | $26 | $30 | $34 |
| Base Case (-0.1%) | $17 | $21 | $24 | $28 | $32 |
| Bull Case (-0%) | $17 | $21 | $24 | $28 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.55 | 12.00 | 6.75 | 16.01 | 3.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.66 | 13.05 | 8.26 | 16.53 | 2.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.67 | 11.86 | 7.57 | 14.86 | 2.63 |
| P/FCF | 15.56 | 8.96 | 6.13 | 48.55 | 15.28 |
| P/FFO | 10.14 | 10.31 | 6.10 | 14.08 | 2.77 |
| P/TBV | 1.40 | 1.47 | 0.86 | 2.04 | 0.38 |
| P/AFFO | 10.49 | 10.25 | 6.52 | 14.49 | 3.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 1.06 | 0.67 | 1.62 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.50 | 2.34 | 1.69 | 4.07 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FHN's fair value at $24.47 vs the current price of $24.89, implying -1.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.46 (P10) to $26.13 (P90), with a median of $24.25.
FHN's current P/E of 13.2x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -6.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
35 analysts cover FHN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.00 (range: $27.00 — $30.00), implying +12.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (20), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FHN trades at the 5170th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FHN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 100.0% to approximately $25. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.