MODEL VERDICT
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $1409.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $1350.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $1344.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $1380.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $1665.53 | Below threshold | -17.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $843.83 | -40.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $717.13 | -49.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $689.12 | -51.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $612.13 | -56.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $820.83 | -41.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $447.47 | -68.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $1153.15 | -18.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $168.85 | -88.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $277.74 | -80.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $729.03 | -48.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $612.87 | -56.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $967.04 | -31.4% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $1325 | $1443 | $1561 | $1679 | $1797 |
| Conservative (18%) | $1407 | $1532 | $1657 | $1782 | $1908 |
| Base Case (27.4%) | $1522 | $1657 | $1792 | $1927 | $2063 |
| Bull Case (37%) | $1636 | $1782 | $1927 | $2073 | $2218 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 61.17 | 63.70 | 32.36 | 97.36 | 20.73 |
| EV/EBIT | 46.50 | 47.49 | 26.94 | 69.58 | 13.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.75 | 47.31 | 26.04 | 69.60 | 14.09 |
| P/FCF | 50.59 | 48.02 | 30.48 | 82.20 | 18.24 |
| P/FFO | 57.44 | 57.34 | 30.38 | 94.81 | 20.75 |
| P/AFFO | 59.66 | 62.49 | 30.94 | 96.44 | 20.91 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.02 | 11.82 | 9.64 | 29.07 | 7.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FICO's fair value at $967.04 vs the current price of $1409.36, implying -31.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $967.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $798.14 (P10) to $1109.14 (P90), with a median of $952.80.
FICO's current P/E of 53.1x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +104.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 61.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover FICO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2111.17 (range: $1640.00 — $2400.00), implying +49.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FICO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 570.0% to approximately $1329. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.