MODEL VERDICT
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $1035.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $1004.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $1073.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $1030.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $922.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $927.64 | -10.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $687.01 | -33.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $840.77 | -18.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $635.31 | -38.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $772.64 | -25.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $660.70 | -36.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $2522.93 | +143.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $459.91 | -55.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $513.11 | -50.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $845.94 | -18.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $638.70 | -38.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1139.64 | +10.1% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $972 | $1060 | $1149 | $1237 | $1325 |
| Conservative (18%) | $1032 | $1126 | $1220 | $1313 | $1407 |
| Base Case (27.4%) | $1116 | $1217 | $1319 | $1420 | $1522 |
| Bull Case (37%) | $1200 | $1309 | $1418 | $1527 | $1636 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 61.17 | 63.70 | 32.36 | 97.36 | 20.73 |
| EV/EBIT | 46.50 | 47.49 | 26.94 | 69.58 | 13.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.75 | 47.31 | 26.04 | 69.60 | 14.09 |
| P/FCF | 50.59 | 48.02 | 30.48 | 82.20 | 18.24 |
| P/FFO | 57.44 | 57.34 | 30.38 | 94.81 | 20.75 |
| P/AFFO | 59.66 | 62.49 | 30.94 | 96.44 | 20.91 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.02 | 11.82 | 9.64 | 29.07 | 7.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FICO's fair value at $1139.64 vs the current price of $1035.50, implying +10.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1139.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $928.83 (P10) to $1184.77 (P90), with a median of $1055.25.
FICO's current P/E of 39.0x compares to the industry median of 31.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +23.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 61.2x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
18 analysts cover FICO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1649.11 (range: $1150.00 — $2200.00), implying +59.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 33.7% is 7.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (26.1%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$1258. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FICO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2150.0% to approximately $1258. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.