Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$1,409.36
→
Intrinsic$988.02
-30%
$634.48$988.02$1,658.79
Market implies 34% growth for 5 years
FICO trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $1409, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (34%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $634 → Bull $1659. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $1243 | $1353 | $1470 | $1594 |
| 10% | $834 | $908 | $988 | $1073 |
| 12% | $607 | $663 | $722 | $785 |
| 14% | $464 | $507 | $554 | $603 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1659) offers 18% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($634) implies 55% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 34% growth expectations vs 25% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 30% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$962.36M
Year 2$1.20B
Year 3$1.50B
Year 4$1.88B
Year 5$2.35B
Terminal$34.57B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$769.88MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.