MODEL VERDICT
Figma, Inc. (FIG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $29.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $26.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $22.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $24.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $37.33 | Below threshold | -40.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $5.06 | -82.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $14.28 | -51.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $14.60 | -50.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $11.91 | -59.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $10.51 | -64.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $14.39 | -51.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.88 | -69.8% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates FIG's fair value at $8.88 vs the current price of $29.39, implying -69.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.41 (P10) to $13.25 (P90), with a median of $10.35.
FIG's current P/E of -7.9x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -130.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover FIG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $36.17 (range: $30.00 — $44.00), implying +23.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FIG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.