MODEL VERDICT
Fiserv, Inc. (FISV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $62.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $60.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $63.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $61.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $56.09 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $142.17 | +128.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $182.31 | +193.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $144.13 | +131.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $196.56 | +216.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $135.61 | +118.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $167.47 | +169.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $453.96 | +630.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $114.76 | +84.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $142.91 | +130.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $143.07 | +130.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $195.81 | +215.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $181.69 | +192.4% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $43 | $58 | $72 | $87 | $101 |
| Conservative (23%) | $47 | $62 | $78 | $94 | $109 |
| Base Case (35.3%) | $51 | $69 | $86 | $103 | $120 |
| Bull Case (48%) | $56 | $75 | $94 | $112 | $131 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.21 | 38.18 | 10.59 | 81.33 | 25.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.74 | 24.95 | 11.30 | 51.72 | 15.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.62 | 15.97 | 7.35 | 24.98 | 5.60 |
| P/FCF | 21.37 | 23.62 | 6.08 | 29.14 | 7.24 |
| P/FFO | 15.33 | 15.39 | 5.55 | 23.75 | 5.94 |
| P/AFFO | 20.49 | 20.68 | 7.56 | 33.15 | 8.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.39 | 2.18 | 1.43 | 4.32 | 0.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.43 | 4.30 | 1.74 | 5.93 | 1.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FISV's fair value at $181.69 vs the current price of $62.14, implying +192.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $181.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $154.18 (P10) to $206.87 (P90), with a median of $180.07.
FISV's current P/E of 9.8x compares to the industry median of 22.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -56.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 43.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
60 analysts cover FISV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $74.64 (range: $62.00 — $100.00), implying +20.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (35), Hold (25), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FISV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 22790.0% to approximately $204. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.