MODEL VERDICT
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $50.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $49.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $50.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $49.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $49.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $45.18 | -10.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $38.14 | -24.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $33.29 | -34.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $64.25 | +27.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $45.18 | -10.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $35.76 | -29.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.23 | -22.2% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $38 | $45 | $51 | $58 | $64 |
| Conservative (5%) | $40 | $46 | $53 | $59 | $66 |
| Base Case (-1.2%) | $37 | $43 | $50 | $56 | $62 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $37 | $43 | $49 | $56 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.09 | 10.71 | 7.69 | 15.07 | 2.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.22 | 12.27 | 10.79 | 18.19 | 2.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.34 | 10.75 | 9.41 | 14.28 | 1.82 |
| P/FCF | 225.99 | 12.06 | 3.97 | 1526.39 | 573.44 |
| P/FFO | 8.67 | 8.44 | 6.32 | 10.35 | 1.58 |
| P/TBV | 1.71 | 1.89 | 1.10 | 2.25 | 0.46 |
| P/AFFO | 10.09 | 10.22 | 6.83 | 12.71 | 2.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 1.24 | 0.86 | 1.48 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.55 | 2.47 | 1.92 | 3.90 | 0.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FITB's fair value at $39.23 vs the current price of $50.43, implying -22.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.18 (P10) to $42.36 (P90), with a median of $39.71.
FITB's current P/E of 16.1x compares to the industry median of 14.4x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +11.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
51 analysts cover FITB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $56.50 (range: $50.00 — $63.00), implying +12.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (26), Hold (22), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FITB trades at the 7560th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FITB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 710.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.