MODEL VERDICT
Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (FLGT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $16.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $31.81 | +125.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $27.50 | +94.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.70 | +103.1% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.16 | 6.19 | 5.85 | 6.43 | 0.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.41 | 4.40 | 4.07 | 4.76 | 0.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.69 | 4.25 | 4.03 | 138.21 | 67.02 |
| P/FCF | 51.45 | 12.04 | 3.93 | 179.54 | 74.66 |
| P/FFO | 39.83 | 5.89 | 5.24 | 142.30 | 68.32 |
| P/TBV | 1.60 | 0.94 | 0.57 | 2.92 | 1.03 |
| P/AFFO | 122.16 | 6.62 | 5.86 | 469.55 | 231.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.50 | 0.76 | 0.49 | 2.92 | 1.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.21 | 2.97 | 1.49 | 7.42 | 1.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates FLGT's fair value at $28.70 vs the current price of $14.13, implying +103.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.62 (P10) to $47.57 (P90), with a median of $31.01.
FLGT's current P/E of -7.2x compares to the industry median of 25.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -127.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.2x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover FLGT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $36.00 — $36.00), implying +154.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FLGT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.