MODEL VERDICT
Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $51.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $52.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $49.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $48.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $47.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $48.35 | -6.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $37.58 | -27.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $49.35 | -4.4% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $69.05 | +33.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $47.87 | -7.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $87.22 | +68.9% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $63.96 | +23.9% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.18 | +3.0% | 100% | 84 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $33 | $43 | $52 | $62 | $71 |
| Conservative (5%) | $34 | $44 | $54 | $63 | $73 |
| Base Case (4.0%) | $34 | $44 | $53 | $63 | $73 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $34 | $44 | $54 | $64 | $73 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.15 | 11.38 | 5.94 | 26.71 | 6.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.82 | 8.52 | 3.82 | 18.00 | 4.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.11 | 6.70 | 3.52 | 12.13 | 2.79 |
| P/FCF | 5.64 | 3.64 | 2.18 | 11.78 | 3.97 |
| P/FFO | 8.10 | 7.63 | 4.46 | 12.46 | 2.85 |
| P/TBV | 7.56 | 7.94 | 5.60 | 8.75 | 1.44 |
| P/AFFO | 8.87 | 8.23 | 4.65 | 14.14 | 3.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.71 | 1.80 | 1.28 | 2.12 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.11 | 1.11 | 0.91 | 1.43 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates FNF's fair value at $53.18 vs the current price of $51.63, implying +3.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.26 (P10) to $58.62 (P90), with a median of $51.91.
FNF's current P/E of 11.1x compares to the industry median of 10.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +6.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
17 analysts cover FNF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.00 (range: $67.00 — $67.00), implying +29.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FNF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3850.0% to approximately $72. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.