MODEL VERDICT
Fox Corporation (FOX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $56.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $56.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $58.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $57.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $54.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $50.53 | -11.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $136.27 | +139.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $64.37 | +13.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $61.43 | +7.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $150.72 | +164.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $217.55 | +282.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $40.70 | -28.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $113.75 | +99.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $69.19 | +21.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $64.73 | +13.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $61.33 | +7.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $95.88 | +68.4% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $43 | $54 | $65 | $76 | $86 |
| Conservative (16%) | $46 | $57 | $68 | $80 | $91 |
| Base Case (24.8%) | $49 | $61 | $74 | $86 | $98 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $52 | $66 | $79 | $92 | $105 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.52 | 13.48 | 9.49 | 17.83 | 2.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.57 | 9.25 | 6.93 | 11.82 | 1.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.91 | 7.86 | 5.86 | 9.88 | 1.45 |
| P/FCF | 10.48 | 10.00 | 8.87 | 14.69 | 1.92 |
| P/FFO | 11.02 | 11.30 | 8.32 | 14.15 | 2.03 |
| P/TBV | 4.42 | 4.67 | 3.34 | 5.21 | 0.70 |
| P/AFFO | 13.70 | 12.92 | 10.37 | 19.81 | 3.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.84 | 1.79 | 1.38 | 2.42 | 0.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.30 | 0.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.51 | 1.57 | 0.98 | 1.98 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FOX's fair value at $95.88 vs the current price of $56.93, implying +68.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $95.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $83.61 (P10) to $105.84 (P90), with a median of $94.41.
FOX's current P/E of 11.6x compares to the industry median of 13.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -11.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.5x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
42 analysts cover FOX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $79.00 (range: $73.00 — $85.00), implying +38.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (20), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FOX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1730.0% to approximately $67. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.