Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$51.73
→
Intrinsic$223.40
+332%
$150.64$223.40$361.45
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests FOX could have 332% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $52, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $151 → Bull $361. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $276 | $298 | $322 | $348 |
| 10% | $192 | $207 | $223 | $241 |
| 12% | $145 | $156 | $169 | $182 |
| 14% | $116 | $125 | $134 | $144 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($361) offers 599% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($151) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$3.74B
Year 2$4.66B
Year 3$5.82B
Year 4$7.27B
Year 5$9.07B
Terminal$133.48B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate24.8%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.99BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.