MODEL VERDICT
Franklin Financial Services Corporation (FRAF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $37.21 | -23.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $42.00 | -13.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $46.78 | -3.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $52.36 | +8.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $37.21 | -23.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.12 | -21.2% | 100% | 83 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $38 | $44 | $49 | $54 | $59 |
| Conservative (5%) | $40 | $45 | $50 | $55 | $61 |
| Base Case (-7.3%) | $35 | $40 | $44 | $49 | $54 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $34 | $38 | $43 | $47 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.82 | 10.54 | 7.49 | 22.66 | 4.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.75 | 8.73 | 4.35 | 16.72 | 5.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.53 | 7.73 | 4.06 | 14.82 | 4.28 |
| P/FCF | 11.37 | 9.82 | 5.30 | 19.83 | 5.37 |
| P/FFO | 10.34 | 9.73 | 7.06 | 18.61 | 3.79 |
| P/TBV | 1.17 | 1.12 | 0.87 | 1.53 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 16.26 | 12.24 | 8.65 | 38.60 | 10.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.09 | 1.05 | 0.81 | 1.41 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.06 | 2.28 | 1.16 | 2.70 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates FRAF's fair value at $38.12 vs the current price of $48.36, implying -21.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.84 (P10) to $42.62 (P90), with a median of $38.63.
FRAF's current P/E of 19.3x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a +30.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.8x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for FRAF.
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FRAF trades at the 7860th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FRAF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.