MODEL VERDICT
Primis Financial Corp. (FRST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $13.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $33.40 | +127.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $20.91 | +42.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 4 bank peers | $19.38 | +31.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 3 industry peers | $16.58 | +12.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $33.44 | +127.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $17.31 | +17.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.65 | +60.9% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $11 | $11 | $16 | $22 | $27 |
| Conservative (14%) | $11 | $11 | $17 | $23 | $28 |
| Base Case (21.0%) | $12 | $12 | $18 | $24 | $30 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $13 | $13 | $19 | $26 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.59 | 12.02 | 5.59 | 20.79 | 5.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.59 | 14.86 | 1.30 | 37.33 | 13.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.68 | 12.23 | 1.08 | 26.12 | 9.36 |
| P/FCF | 18.39 | 14.88 | 11.15 | 38.01 | 9.99 |
| P/FFO | 57.98 | 9.62 | 9.45 | 247.84 | 106.15 |
| P/TBV | 1.15 | 1.08 | 1.04 | 1.48 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 11.00 | 9.98 | 9.80 | 14.21 | 2.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 1.05 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.99 | 2.06 | 1.10 | 3.05 | 0.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FRST's fair value at $23.65 vs the current price of $14.70, implying +60.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.56 (P10) to $25.89 (P90), with a median of $23.18.
FRST's current P/E of 5.9x compares to the industry median of 13.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -56.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover FRST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying -4.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FRST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (12.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3650.0% to approximately $20. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.