MODEL VERDICT
FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $239.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $232.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $259.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $269.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $251.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $116.16 | -51.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $91.55 | -61.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $87.69 | -63.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $110.61 | -53.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $123.84 | -48.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $67.98 | -71.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $79.65 | -66.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $120.55 | -49.8% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 44× | 48× | 52× (Current) | 56× | 60× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $210 | $230 | $249 | $268 | $287 |
| Conservative (7%) | $216 | $235 | $255 | $274 | $294 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $223 | $243 | $263 | $283 | $304 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $230 | $251 | $271 | $292 | $313 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.16 | 21.99 | 10.70 | 42.79 | 16.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.09 | 33.69 | 10.70 | 76.10 | 24.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.67 | 15.75 | 10.98 | 23.69 | 5.17 |
| P/FFO | 28.94 | 23.89 | 3.58 | 60.35 | 22.50 |
| P/TBV | 27.31 | 2.03 | 1.21 | 92.91 | 40.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 51.39 | 26.49 | 1.07 | 179.75 | 65.79 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.22 | 4.65 | 2.36 | 8.36 | 2.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates FTAI's fair value at $120.55 vs the current price of $239.95, implying -49.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $120.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $98.34 (P10) to $137.63 (P90), with a median of $117.39.
FTAI's current P/E of 52.2x compares to the industry median of 19.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +173.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.2x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover FTAI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $297.67 (range: $225.00 — $350.00), implying +24.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FTAI trades at the 9090th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FTAI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (22.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4520.0% to approximately $132. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.