Upside case
Bull case
$162+79.9%
FTNT would need investors to value it at roughly 54x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 30x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
68
analysts
30 bullish · 5 bearish · 68 covering FTNT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
33
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$87
-3.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$23 – $162
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
68
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $66.9B
FTNT price targets
Three scenarios for where FTNT stock could go
Current
~$90
Confidence
84 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $90
Bear
$23
Base
$130
Bull
$162
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$130+44.1%
At 44x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$23-73.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 22x multiple contraction could push FTNT down roughly 74% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Fortinet, Inc.
FTNT · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Fortinet is a cybersecurity company that provides integrated network security solutions through hardware appliances, software, and cloud services. It generates revenue primarily from selling security hardware like firewalls (~60% of product revenue) and software subscriptions/services (~40% of total revenue) including support, cloud security, and software-as-a-service offerings. The company's key advantage is its Security Fabric architecture—a unified platform approach that integrates various security functions across networks, endpoints, and clouds, creating switching costs and operational efficiencies for customers.
Market Cap
$66.9B
Revenue TTM
$6.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.9B
Net Margin
27.3%
FTNT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+16.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.58/$0.53
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.59
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.74/$0.63
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.81/$0.74
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.58/$0.53 | +9.2% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.64/$0.59 | +8.5% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.74/$0.63 | +17.3% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.81/$0.74 | +9.0% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.7B
+13.2% YoY
FY2
$8.8B
+13.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.00
+20.9% YoY
FY2
$3.50
+16.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 32.7%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.61
Expected Revenue
$1.7B
FTNT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FTNT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $6.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Security Subscription
38.9%
+22.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
41.0%
+12.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Security Subscription is the largest disclosed segment at 38.9% of FY 2024 revenue, up 22.1% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 41.0%, up 12.3% YoY.
FTNT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $76 — implies -12.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
12.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FTNT
37.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+47% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
FTNT
37.0x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+38% premium
vs FTNT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.0x
vs
5Y Average
51.8x
29% discount
Forward PE
30.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+58%
Technology
22.1x
+37%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+47%
Technology
26.7x
+38%
5Y Avg
51.8x
-29%
PEG Ratio
1.12x
S&P 500
1.72x
-35%
Technology
1.52x
-27%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
29.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+92%
Technology
17.5x
+68%
5Y Avg
42.8x
-32%
Price/FCF
30.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+42%
Technology
19.5x
+54%
5Y Avg
33.8x
-11%
Price/Sales
9.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+215%
Technology
2.4x
+303%
5Y Avg
11.3x
-13%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FTNT | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg FTNT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.2x | 19.1x+58% | 22.1x+37% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.0x | 25.1x+47% | 26.7x+38% | 51.8x-29% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.12x | 1.72x-35% | 1.52x-27% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.3x | 15.2x+92% | 17.5x+68% | 42.8x-32% |
| Price/FCF | 30.0x | 21.1x+42% | 19.5x+54% | 33.8x-11% |
| Price/Sales | 9.8x | 3.1x+215% | 2.4x+303% | 11.3x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
FTNT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFTNT Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
FTNT generates $2.2B in free cash flow at a 32.7% margin — returns 3.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
80.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
27.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.48
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
32.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
—
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
149.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
748M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFTNT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Intense Competition
Fortinet faces fierce competition from Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler, all vying for market share in the cybersecurity space. Rival firms are aggressively pricing and innovating, especially in the Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) segment where Zscaler is a strong challenger. This rivalry can erode Fortinet’s pricing power, compress margins, and dilute its customer base.
High Risk
Slowing Growth & Market Saturation
Product revenue growth may decelerate as the major firewall refresh cycle approaches completion, limiting upsell opportunities. Services revenue is also slowing, driven by customer churn and a saturated market. These dynamics could materially impact top‑line growth and shareholder returns.
High Risk
Operational & Technical Risks
Fortinet has experienced security incidents, including a credential leak in 2023, and a critical FortiClient EMS vulnerability exploited in the wild. Rapid feature development and complex API integrations add technical debt, increasing the likelihood of future breaches or product failures. Such events can damage reputation and trigger costly remediation.
Medium
Shift to Cloud‑Native Architectures
The industry’s move toward cloud‑native solutions threatens Fortinet’s hardware‑centric business model. While the company is launching Unified SASE, competitors with established cloud-native platforms may capture key market segments. This shift could reduce Fortinet’s competitive advantage and revenue mix.
Medium
AI‑Driven Threats & Defense
Adversaries are leveraging AI for autonomous vulnerability discovery and exploitation, while Fortinet invests in AI for threat detection. The rapid evolution of AI-driven attacks creates an ongoing arms race, requiring continuous investment and adaptation. Failure to keep pace could expose Fortinet’s products to sophisticated threats.
Lower
Regulatory & Compliance Challenges
Fortinet must navigate tightening regulations such as GDPR and CCPA, which impose strict data protection requirements. Non‑compliance could result in fines, operational restrictions, and reputational damage. While less immediate than other risks, regulatory hurdles can constrain growth and increase compliance costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FTNT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Growth
Fortinet posted Q4 2025 revenue of $1.91 billion, up 15% YoY, with product revenue rising 20% and billings 18%. Over the past five years the company has averaged 29.5% annual earnings growth, and full‑year 2025 free cash flow hit a record $2.21 billion.
Leadership in Unified SASE
Unified SASE billings grew 40% in Q4 2025, underscoring Fortinet’s position in the rapidly expanding secure access service edge market. The company is also a key player in securing AI data centers through strategic partnerships.
Strong Moat & Customer Base
Fortinet serves over 700,000 customers, creating high switching costs and brand trust. The scale and cost‑effective, high‑performance solutions give it a durable competitive advantage, especially for small and mid‑sized businesses.
Firewall Refresh Cycle
A projected firewall refresh cycle in 2026 is expected to provide a revenue floor and create upsell opportunities for higher‑margin services, reinforcing recurring revenue streams.
Shift to Services & Recurring Revenue
Fortinet is strategically moving its business model toward higher‑margin subscription and service revenue, a key growth driver that can expand margins and stabilize cash flow.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FTNT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$89.92
52W Range Position
51%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$70.12
+28.2% from the low
52-Week High
$108.77
-17.3% from the high
1 Month
+9.27%
3 Month
+13.92%
YTD
+15.5%
1 Year
-17.3%
3Y CAGR
+11.7%
5Y CAGR
+16.5%
10Y CAGR
+30.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FTNT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.2x
vs 22.7x median
+33% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.2%
vs +4.2% median
+213% above peer median
Net Margin
27.3%
vs 13.0% median
+110% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FTN FTNT Fortinet, Inc. | $66.9B | 30.2x | +13.2% | 27.3% | Hold | -3.5% |
PAN PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. | $129.3B | 49.9x | +15.3% | 13.0% | Buy | +13.0% |
CHK CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. | $12.3B | 11.3x | +4.0% | 38.4% | Hold | +30.9% |
CSC CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $373.4B | 22.7x | +4.2% | 18.8% | Buy | +2.3% |
NTC NTCT NetScout Systems, Inc. | $2.6B | 14.8x | -1.1% | 11.1% | Hold | -18.9% |
CRW CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $120.7B | 97.9x | +23.5% | -3.8% | Buy | +10.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FTNT Dividend and Capital Return
FTNT returns 3.4% annually — null% through dividends and 3.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
25M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
748M
At 3.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsFTNT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 68 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 33 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $87, implying -3.5% from the current price of $90. The bear case scenario is $23 and the bull case is $162.
02What is the FTNT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FTNT is $87 based on 68 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $104 (+15.7% from today), and the low-end target is $70 (-22.2%). The base case model target is $130.
03Is Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) stock overvalued in 2026?
FTNT trades at 30.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FTNT in 2026 are: (1) Intense Competition — Fortinet faces fierce competition from Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler, all vying for market share in the cybersecurity space. (2) Slowing Growth & Market Saturation — Product revenue growth may decelerate as the major firewall refresh cycle approaches completion, limiting upsell opportunities. (3) Operational & Technical Risks — Fortinet has experienced security incidents, including a credential leak in 2023, and a critical FortiClient EMS vulnerability exploited in the wild. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Fortinet, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FTNT will report consensus revenue of $7.7B (+13.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.00 (+20.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.8B in revenue.
06When does Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) report its next earnings?
Fortinet, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.61 and revenue of $1.7B. Over recent quarters, FTNT has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Fortinet, Inc. generate?
Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 32.7%. FTNT returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2.3B TTM).