MODEL VERDICT
Fortive Corporation (FTV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $59.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $61.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $60.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $59.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $58.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $72.98 | +23.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $71.85 | +21.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $61.57 | +4.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $90.64 | +53.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $73.48 | +24.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $90.69 | +53.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $70.21 | +18.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $71.69 | +21.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $61.55 | +4.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $90.24 | +52.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.28 | +10.6% | 100% | 84 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $50 | $55 | $60 | $66 | $71 |
| Conservative (5%) | $51 | $57 | $62 | $68 | $73 |
| Base Case (-16.6%) | $41 | $45 | $49 | $54 | $58 |
| Bull Case (-22%) | $38 | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.51 | 23.17 | 12.41 | 35.27 | 7.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.67 | 20.77 | 13.14 | 45.22 | 10.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.49 | 16.57 | 13.37 | 24.89 | 4.42 |
| P/FCF | 16.14 | 14.47 | 14.08 | 22.23 | 3.05 |
| P/FFO | 15.45 | 14.92 | 9.59 | 20.18 | 3.55 |
| P/AFFO | 16.83 | 16.24 | 9.97 | 22.04 | 4.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.13 | 2.13 | 1.80 | 2.73 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.49 | 3.43 | 3.00 | 4.13 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates FTV's fair value at $65.28 vs the current price of $59.03, implying +10.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.23 (P10) to $76.14 (P90), with a median of $68.52.
FTV's current P/E of 33.9x compares to the industry median of 35.4x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -4.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
30 analysts cover FTV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $60.67 (range: $51.00 — $70.00), implying +2.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (18), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FTV trades at the 3120th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FTV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 50.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.