MODEL VERDICT
EQV Ventures Acquisition Corp. (FTW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $11.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $11.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $11.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $11.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $2.40 | -78.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 3 industry peers | $12.49 | +13.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 2 bank peers | $22.45 | +103.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $3.28 | -70.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.81 | -2.2% | 100% | 55 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 40× | 44× | 48× (Current) | 52× | 56× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $11 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates FTW's fair value at $10.81 vs the current price of $11.05, implying -2.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 55/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.98 (P10) to $12.79 (P90), with a median of $10.39.
FTW's current P/E of 48.0x compares to the industry median of 10.5x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +359.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for FTW.
The model confidence score is 55/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (18), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FTW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.