MODEL VERDICT
Paysafe Limited (PSFE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $8.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $8.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $8.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $7.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $16.64 | +76.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $39.40 | +318.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $43.08 | +357.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $7.71 | -18.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $42.76 | +354.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $41.64 | +342.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $36.57 | +288.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $54.29 | +476.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.52 | +320.0% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 56.07 | 44.69 | 14.56 | 125.62 | 44.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.98 | 7.66 | 4.50 | 48.10 | 20.80 |
| P/FCF | 12.92 | 7.86 | 0.92 | 33.92 | 13.39 |
| P/FFO | 21.60 | 5.13 | 3.22 | 77.26 | 31.78 |
| P/AFFO | 26.76 | 11.65 | 3.40 | 80.31 | 36.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.75 | 1.01 | 0.72 | 5.65 | 1.92 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.92 | 0.59 | 0.28 | 7.66 | 2.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates PSFE's fair value at $39.52 vs the current price of $9.41, implying +320.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.41 (P10) to $64.60 (P90), with a median of $43.68.
PSFE's current P/E of -3.0x compares to the industry median of 16.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -117.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover PSFE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying +6.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PSFE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.