MODEL VERDICT
Frontier Communications Parent, Inc. (FYBR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $38.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $38.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $38.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $38.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $38.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $21.98 | -42.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $9.40 | -75.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.57 | -41.4% | 100% | 52 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 75.59 | 14.16 | 1.45 | 211.17 | 117.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.33 | 17.19 | 11.41 | 39.52 | 12.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.27 | 8.74 | 5.55 | 10.03 | 1.91 |
| P/FFO | 4.00 | 4.11 | 1.17 | 6.61 | 2.24 |
| P/TBV | 8.33 | 5.11 | 3.72 | 19.37 | 7.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.43 | 1.39 | 1.19 | 1.74 | 0.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.19 | 1.11 | 1.08 | 1.45 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates FYBR's fair value at $22.57 vs the current price of $38.49, implying -41.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (9,994 iterations) gives a range of $8.27 (P10) to $26.32 (P90), with a median of $16.83.
FYBR's current P/E of -29.6x compares to the industry median of 9.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -413.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 75.6x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover FYBR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $34.33 (range: $23.00 — $38.50), implying -10.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (11), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FYBR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.