MODEL VERDICT
Genpact Limited (G)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $34.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $34.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $36.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $36.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $52.06 | +51.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $52.21 | +52.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $56.17 | +63.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $56.50 | +64.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $54.65 | +59.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $45.37 | +32.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $75.26 | +119.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $69.89 | +103.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $72.75 | +111.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $52.50 | +52.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $54.92 | +60.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.92 | +65.8% | 100% | 90 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $23 | $30 | $36 | $43 | $50 |
| Conservative (10%) | $24 | $31 | $38 | $45 | $51 |
| Base Case (14.8%) | $25 | $32 | $40 | $47 | $54 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $26 | $34 | $41 | $49 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.86 | 24.64 | 10.18 | 27.79 | 7.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.51 | 18.66 | 10.99 | 21.32 | 4.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.79 | 15.46 | 10.00 | 17.20 | 3.17 |
| P/FCF | 17.25 | 15.77 | 11.25 | 25.79 | 5.02 |
| P/FFO | 15.37 | 17.30 | 8.74 | 19.07 | 3.99 |
| P/TBV | 50.57 | 12.17 | 11.18 | 166.75 | 77.46 |
| P/AFFO | 18.10 | 20.33 | 9.50 | 25.34 | 5.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.11 | 4.41 | 2.86 | 5.40 | 0.99 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.96 | 1.99 | 1.44 | 2.55 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates G's fair value at $56.92 vs the current price of $34.33, implying +65.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.82 (P10) to $63.31 (P90), with a median of $57.53.
G's current P/E of 11.0x compares to the industry median of 17.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -38.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
39 analysts cover G with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $46.00 (range: $42.00 — $50.00), implying +34.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (20), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that G's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7470.0% to approximately $60. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.