MODEL VERDICT
Galiano Gold Inc. (GAU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $4.33 | +86.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $4.75 | +104.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $0.35 | -84.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $2.27 | -2.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $6.72 | +189.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $6.53 | +181.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $0.35 | -84.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.12 | +34.5% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 81× | 89× | 97× (Current) | 105× | 113× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $2 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
| Conservative (7%) | $2 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.68 | 6.09 | 3.06 | 51.46 | 23.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.56 | 6.00 | 1.50 | 18.19 | 8.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.74 | 3.38 | 1.55 | 7.73 | 2.41 |
| P/FFO | 6.47 | 6.24 | 2.86 | 10.54 | 3.48 |
| P/TBV | 1.06 | 1.18 | 0.46 | 1.52 | 0.37 |
| P/AFFO | 5.12 | 4.42 | 2.86 | 8.08 | 2.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.06 | 1.18 | 0.46 | 1.52 | 0.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.10 | 1.36 | 0.87 | 4.08 | 1.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates GAU's fair value at $3.12 vs the current price of $2.32, implying +34.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.70 (P10) to $3.58 (P90), with a median of $3.13.
GAU's current P/E of 97.1x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +553.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.7x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover GAU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.25 (range: $4.25 — $4.25), implying +83.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GAU trades at the 9260th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GAU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.