MODEL VERDICT
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (GBCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $49.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $48.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $48.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $47.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $48.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $26.83 | -45.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $39.21 | -20.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $32.59 | -33.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $41.28 | -15.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $26.83 | -45.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $33.52 | -31.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.17 | -24.3% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 |
| Conservative (5%) | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 | $61 |
| Base Case (-6.7%) | $39 | $43 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
| Bull Case (-9%) | $38 | $42 | $45 | $49 | $53 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.88 | 19.83 | 16.37 | 29.89 | 4.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.52 | 21.69 | 14.97 | 38.15 | 8.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.87 | 19.74 | 13.69 | 32.22 | 6.41 |
| P/FCF | 17.17 | 16.50 | 10.02 | 27.11 | 6.84 |
| P/FFO | 18.35 | 17.62 | 14.70 | 24.53 | 3.27 |
| P/TBV | 2.58 | 2.63 | 2.10 | 3.02 | 0.31 |
| P/AFFO | 20.78 | 18.37 | 15.30 | 30.99 | 5.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.76 | 1.77 | 1.36 | 2.07 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.32 | 5.53 | 4.02 | 6.93 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates GBCI's fair value at $37.17 vs the current price of $49.08, implying -24.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.67 (P10) to $41.54 (P90), with a median of $39.09.
GBCI's current P/E of 24.7x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +82.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover GBCI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $57.33 (range: $54.00 — $60.00), implying +16.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GBCI trades at the 9540th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GBCI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3480.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.