MODEL VERDICT
Genesco Inc. (GCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $34.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $35.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $36.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $33.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $31.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $23.72 | -31.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $63.53 | +82.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $30.64 | -12.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $235.70 | +576.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $247.25 | +609.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $63.54 | +82.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $52.47 | +50.6% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.57 | 6.22 | 5.81 | 7.68 | 0.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.27 | 10.54 | 6.30 | 50.46 | 18.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.58 | 10.84 | 6.21 | 26.91 | 7.12 |
| P/FCF | 6.78 | 5.57 | 3.59 | 13.93 | 3.66 |
| P/FFO | 582.51 | 6.12 | 3.90 | 3459.93 | 1409.65 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.02 | 0.52 | 1.83 | 0.45 |
| P/AFFO | 6.80 | 6.43 | 5.81 | 8.16 | 1.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.97 | 0.84 | 0.49 | 1.61 | 0.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.28 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.51 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates GCO's fair value at $52.47 vs the current price of $34.84, implying +50.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $52.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.63 (P10) to $48.10 (P90), with a median of $37.76.
GCO's current P/E of -19.4x compares to the industry median of 20.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -194.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.6x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover GCO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $36.25 (range: $32.00 — $43.00), implying +4.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (15), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GCO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.