Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG)
Valuation Overview•Is Great Elm Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 43/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
GEG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (53.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-58.7%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.4M | -8.5% | +53.4% | -22.7% | +13.7% | |
| EBITDA | -$3.7M | — | +6.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$13.7M | +1028.7% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.45 | +812.7% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.8M | +42.1% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 3.1% | -4.3% | -0.9% | -1.9% |
| Operating Margin | -58.7% | -74.1% | -84.4% | -78.2% |
| Net Margin | -100.5% | 130.4% | 9.9% | -53.4% |
| FCF Margin | 50.2% | -56.8% | 83.4% | 15.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | — | $-0.45 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $-0.50 | — | ||
| Q4'25 | — | $-0.24 | — | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $0.02 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.33 | $-0.17 | -151.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.34 | $0.04 | -88.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.34 | $0.08 | -76.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.40 | $-0.02 | -105.0% |
Total return is +23.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -1.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +8.7% | -0.6% | — |
| 1Y | +23.8% | -1.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +10.4% | -15.8% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +2.8% | -13.8% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -8.9% | -24.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Great Elm Group, Inc. appears Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Great Elm Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $3.03. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Great Elm Group, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 43/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -28.3 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -6.3%.
Great Elm Group, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 9.5% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +29.6% in the last 12 months.
Great Elm Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -8.5% 1Y revenue growth and +812.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +53.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 0% of recent quarters with a -21-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Great Elm Group, Inc. include: -39.8% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.44x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.