MODEL VERDICT
Gen Digital Inc. (GEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $19.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $19.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $20.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $19.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $112.48 | +480.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $83.14 | +329.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $38.46 | +98.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $65.65 | +238.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $68.56 | +253.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $54.63 | +182.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $3.63 | -81.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $49.29 | +154.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $60.91 | +214.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $38.56 | +99.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $60.68 | +213.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.13 | +241.4% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Conservative (5%) | $16 | $18 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Base Case (2.7%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 93.15 | 26.40 | 10.56 | 519.76 | 188.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.35 | 18.06 | 12.51 | 186.04 | 63.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.76 | 15.92 | 11.96 | 29.87 | 6.23 |
| P/FCF | 14.92 | 13.58 | 8.60 | 22.27 | 4.90 |
| P/FFO | 19.37 | 15.98 | 3.15 | 57.60 | 17.85 |
| P/AFFO | 42.83 | 16.20 | 3.21 | 220.94 | 78.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 272.23 | 7.48 | 2.81 | 1336.16 | 594.76 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.56 | 0.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.66 | 4.53 | 3.41 | 6.11 | 0.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GEN's fair value at $66.13 vs the current price of $19.37, implying +241.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.85 (P10) to $96.09 (P90), with a median of $74.78.
GEN's current P/E of 18.8x compares to the industry median of 37.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -49.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 93.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover GEN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $32.00 — $32.00), implying +65.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 72300.0% to approximately $159. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.