MODEL VERDICT
Gen Digital Inc. (GEN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $25.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $26.96 | Pending | -8.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $40.23 | +78.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $48.23 | +113.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $23.66 | +4.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $28.99 | +28.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $35.42 | +56.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $19.36 | -14.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $3.66 | -83.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $12.56 | -44.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $21.04 | -6.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $26.65 | +18.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $30.08 | +33.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.05 | +68.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Base Case (2.7%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $28 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $26 | $28 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 93.15 | 26.40 | 10.56 | 519.76 | 188.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.35 | 18.06 | 12.51 | 186.04 | 63.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.76 | 15.92 | 11.96 | 29.87 | 6.23 |
| P/FCF | 14.92 | 13.58 | 8.60 | 22.27 | 4.90 |
| P/FFO | 19.37 | 15.98 | 3.15 | 57.60 | 17.85 |
| P/AFFO | 42.83 | 16.20 | 3.21 | 220.94 | 78.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 272.23 | 7.48 | 2.81 | 1336.16 | 594.76 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.56 | 0.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.66 | 4.53 | 3.41 | 6.11 | 0.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GEN's fair value at $38.05 vs the current price of $22.57, implying +68.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.43 (P10) to $62.89 (P90), with a median of $43.90.
GEN's current P/E of 21.9x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -4.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 93.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
21 analysts cover GEN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.67 (range: $31.00 — $32.00), implying +40.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 60630.0% to approximately $159. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.