Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$22.57
→
Intrinsic$25.75
+14%
$13.90$25.75$48.27
Market implies 7% growth for 5 years
GEN appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $23, the market prices in only 7% growth — below historical 10%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $14 → Bull $48. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $33 | $37 | $41 | $46 |
| 10% | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
| 12% | $13 | $15 | $17 | $20 |
| 14% | $8 | $10 | $12 | $14 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($48) offers 114% upside at 12% growth, 9% discount
- 12% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (7%) ≤ historical CAGR (10%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($14) implies 38% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.32B
Year 2$1.45B
Year 3$1.59B
Year 4$1.74B
Year 5$1.91B
Terminal$28.04B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate9.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.21BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.