MODEL VERDICT
Genius Sports Limited (GENI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $4.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $4.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $4.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $4.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $3.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $2.15 | -50.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $3.09 | -29.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $6.03 | +38.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $6.44 | +48.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $3.22 | -26.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $2.97 | -31.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.60 | -17.3% | 100% | 60 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 260.07 | 230.10 | 134.13 | 415.98 | 143.29 |
| P/TBV | 10.30 | 11.59 | 6.04 | 15.17 | 3.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.58 | 2.95 | 1.23 | 14.87 | 5.14 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.48 | 4.04 | 2.08 | 20.98 | 7.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates GENI's fair value at $3.60 vs the current price of $4.35, implying -17.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.04 (P10) to $4.70 (P90), with a median of $3.82.
GENI's current P/E of -9.9x compares to the industry median of 29.9x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -133.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover GENI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.10 (range: $5.00 — $17.00), implying +178.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GENI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.