MODEL VERDICT
DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $23.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $23.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $22.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $23.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $22.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $6.01 | -73.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $7.13 | -69.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $21.39 | -7.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $30.69 | +33.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $21.32 | -7.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $11.46 | -50.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $21.62 | -6.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.24 | -29.4% | 100% | 70 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B Ratio | 13.33 | 12.16 | 3.76 | 27.06 | 9.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.29 | 4.45 | 2.22 | 23.15 | 7.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates DKNG's fair value at $16.24 vs the current price of $23.00, implying -29.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.06 (P10) to $18.22 (P90), with a median of $14.98.
DKNG's current P/E of -2839.5x compares to the industry median of 73.4x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -3969.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
48 analysts cover DKNG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.88 (range: $24.00 — $50.00), implying +60.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (35), Hold (9), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DKNG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.