MODEL VERDICT
Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.74 | Pending | +27.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $0.18 | -97.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $8.93 | +50.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $24.26 | +308.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $7.00 | +17.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $30.30 | +410.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $4.79 | -19.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $20.84 | +250.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $21.63 | +264.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $24.26 | +308.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $7.31 | +23.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.18 | +71.4% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $7 | $9 | $12 | $16 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $7 | $9 | $13 | $16 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $7 | $9 | $13 | $17 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $8 | $8 | $10 | $14 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GFR's fair value at $10.18 vs the current price of $5.94, implying +71.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.11 (P10) to $18.26 (P90), with a median of $15.13.
GFR's current P/E of 4.8x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -66.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover GFR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GFR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7240.0% to approximately $2. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.