MODEL VERDICT
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GFS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $47.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $46.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $48.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $41.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.74 | Pending | +9.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $60.17 | +26.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $113.43 | +138.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $71.73 | +50.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $90.87 | +91.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $66.35 | +39.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $88.55 | +86.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $99.19 | +108.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $95.21 | +100.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $75.10 | +57.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $92.87 | +95.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.67 | +48.6% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $43 | $46 | $50 | $53 | $56 |
| Conservative (7%) | $44 | $47 | $51 | $54 | $58 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $45 | $49 | $52 | $56 | $59 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $47 | $51 | $54 | $58 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.22 | 21.96 | 20.57 | 33.11 | 6.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.49 | 23.10 | 18.63 | 28.74 | 5.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.32 | 13.20 | 9.15 | 20.77 | 4.81 |
| P/FCF | 44.14 | 26.14 | 19.31 | 104.96 | 40.84 |
| P/FFO | 14.88 | 13.64 | 8.86 | 24.02 | 6.31 |
| P/TBV | 2.94 | 3.10 | 1.84 | 4.29 | 0.93 |
| P/AFFO | 644.42 | 42.76 | 13.19 | 2478.95 | 1223.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.78 | 2.99 | 1.63 | 4.09 | 0.93 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.92 | 3.67 | 2.87 | 4.99 | 0.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GFS's fair value at $70.67 vs the current price of $47.55, implying +48.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $62.02 (P10) to $86.74 (P90), with a median of $74.09.
GFS's current P/E of 29.9x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -33.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.2x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover GFS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $51.14 (range: $46.00 — $60.00), implying +7.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GFS trades at the 2980th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GFS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (0.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9570.0% to approximately $2. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.