MODEL VERDICT
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $31.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $31.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $30.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $29.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $29.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $40.72 | +29.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $59.38 | +88.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $21.10 | -33.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $65.21 | +106.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $32.05 | +1.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $91.49 | +190.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $47.10 | +49.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $20.59 | -34.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.79 | +57.9% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $28 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $42 |
| Conservative (17%) | $30 | $33 | $37 | $41 | $44 |
| Base Case (25.8%) | $32 | $36 | $40 | $44 | $47 |
| Bull Case (35%) | $35 | $39 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.59 | 8.39 | 3.39 | 57.58 | 20.47 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.15 | 5.78 | 1.43 | 11.67 | 3.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.46 | 5.28 | 1.16 | 5.81 | 1.66 |
| P/FCF | 8.71 | 4.89 | 2.72 | 24.68 | 9.05 |
| P/FFO | 7.54 | 6.78 | 2.50 | 14.57 | 4.30 |
| P/TBV | 1.61 | 1.73 | 0.80 | 2.26 | 0.63 |
| P/AFFO | 6.95 | 6.09 | 2.83 | 11.89 | 3.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.45 | 1.17 | 0.23 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.25 | 0.66 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GIII's fair value at $49.79 vs the current price of $31.54, implying +57.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.71 (P10) to $49.04 (P90), with a median of $41.80.
GIII's current P/E of 20.9x compares to the industry median of 14.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +49.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.6x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
29 analysts cover GIII with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $33.75 (range: $32.00 — $35.00), implying +7.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GIII trades at the 5450th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GIII's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (8.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19430.0% to approximately $93. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.