MODEL VERDICT
General Mills, Inc. (GIS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $34.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $34.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $35.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $34.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $35.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $52.64 | +51.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $72.68 | +109.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $88.17 | +153.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $78.82 | +127.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $82.97 | +139.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $74.52 | +114.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $9.82 | -71.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $47.30 | +36.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $50.16 | +44.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $88.17 | +153.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $78.00 | +124.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.26 | +90.8% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $25 | $33 | $42 | $50 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $26 | $34 | $43 | $52 |
| Base Case (2.9%) | $17 | $25 | $34 | $42 | $51 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $17 | $26 | $34 | $43 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.15 | 16.52 | 11.34 | 18.97 | 2.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.39 | 15.72 | 12.07 | 17.81 | 2.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.43 | 13.61 | 10.63 | 15.51 | 1.64 |
| P/FCF | 15.13 | 14.62 | 11.22 | 18.75 | 3.17 |
| P/FFO | 12.89 | 12.99 | 9.15 | 15.67 | 2.03 |
| P/AFFO | 16.21 | 16.24 | 11.74 | 18.96 | 2.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.89 | 4.02 | 2.81 | 4.76 | 0.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.02 | 1.95 | 1.33 | 2.70 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GIS's fair value at $66.26 vs the current price of $34.72, implying +90.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.63 (P10) to $75.91 (P90), with a median of $68.12.
GIS's current P/E of 8.5x compares to the industry median of 21.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -60.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
34 analysts cover GIS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $46.58 (range: $35.00 — $63.00), implying +34.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (19), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GIS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9700.0% to approximately $68. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.