MODEL VERDICT
Genmab A/S (GMAB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $29.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $29.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $30.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $30.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.26 | Pending | -9.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $32.52 | +10.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $190.81 | +548.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $264.70 | +799.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $313.07 | +963.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $270.34 | +818.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $299.22 | +916.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $373.04 | +1167.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $222.78 | +656.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $221.49 | +652.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $322.28 | +994.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $340.39 | +1056.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $179.58 | +510.0% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $149 | $176 | $203 | $230 | $257 |
| Conservative (19%) | $159 | $188 | $216 | $245 | $274 |
| Base Case (29.0%) | $172 | $204 | $235 | $266 | $298 |
| Bull Case (39%) | $186 | $220 | $253 | $287 | $321 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.67 | 5.63 | 1.72 | 8.83 | 2.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.15 | 3.36 | 0.50 | 6.01 | 1.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.39 | 3.03 | 0.65 | 6.60 | 2.14 |
| P/FCF | 8.70 | 7.78 | 1.78 | 19.03 | 6.27 |
| P/FFO | 5.32 | 5.35 | 1.63 | 8.15 | 2.03 |
| P/TBV | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.62 | 1.43 | 0.31 |
| P/AFFO | 6.03 | 5.70 | 1.67 | 9.45 | 2.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.99 | 1.03 | 0.37 | 1.40 | 0.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.23 | 2.65 | 0.63 | 3.38 | 1.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GMAB's fair value at $179.58 vs the current price of $29.44, implying +510.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $179.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $122.00 (P10) to $204.20 (P90), with a median of $161.52.
GMAB's current P/E of 15.4x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -29.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
17 analysts cover GMAB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.50 (range: $34.00 — $48.00), implying +37.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 46.8% is 8.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (38.8%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$57. (2) Multiple compression: GMAB trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.7×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GMAB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (38.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9370.0% to approximately $57. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.