MODEL VERDICT
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $311.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $314.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $306.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $318.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $329.14 | Below threshold | -1.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $131.38 | -57.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $147.07 | -52.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $168.97 | -45.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $66.45 | -78.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $87.41 | -71.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $51.78 | -83.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $311.78 | +0.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $74.55 | -76.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $84.55 | -72.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $229.90 | -26.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $66.45 | -78.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $161.58 | -48.1% | 100% | 92 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $303 | $327 | $351 | $375 | $399 |
| Conservative (19%) | $323 | $348 | $374 | $400 | $426 |
| Base Case (29.8%) | $351 | $379 | $407 | $435 | $463 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $379 | $409 | $440 | $470 | $500 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.62 | 25.79 | 19.46 | 29.89 | 3.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.64 | 21.61 | 16.40 | 24.97 | 2.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.02 | 20.24 | 13.31 | 25.81 | 3.84 |
| P/FCF | 31.10 | 29.26 | 19.46 | 52.38 | 10.26 |
| P/FFO | 21.01 | 20.91 | 15.90 | 25.03 | 2.77 |
| P/TBV | 7.18 | 7.05 | 5.19 | 10.05 | 1.84 |
| P/AFFO | 38.74 | 37.69 | 27.83 | 62.04 | 11.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.47 | 6.33 | 4.56 | 9.24 | 1.75 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.60 | 6.59 | 4.13 | 9.52 | 1.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GOOG's fair value at $161.58 vs the current price of $311.43, implying -48.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 92/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $161.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $121.94 (P10) to $194.05 (P90), with a median of $156.00.
GOOG's current P/E of 28.8x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +84.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
79 analysts cover GOOG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $356.91 (range: $279.00 — $420.00), implying +14.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (3), Buy (66), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 92/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 32.8% is 7.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (25.6%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$216. (2) Multiple compression: GOOG trades at the 7370th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.6×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GOOG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3050.0% to approximately $216. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.