Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$311.43
→
Intrinsic$297.18
-5%
$184.41$297.18$569.39
Market implies 26% growth for 5 years
GOOG appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $311, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (26%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $184 → Bull $569. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6% | $433 | $469 | $507 | $548 |
| 8% | $254 | $275 | $297 | $321 |
| 10% | $177 | $192 | $207 | $223 |
| 12% | $135 | $145 | $157 | $168 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($569) offers 83% upside at 30% growth, 7% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($184) implies 41% downside at 20% growth, 10% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$91.58B
Year 2$114.48B
Year 3$143.10B
Year 4$178.87B
Year 5$223.59B
Terminal$4.56T
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate8.1%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$73.27BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.