MODEL VERDICT
GSK plc (GSK) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $59.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $59.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $58.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $58.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $50.39 | Below threshold | +17.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $59.13 | +0.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $59.97 | +1.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $65.69 | +11.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 13 industry peers | $53.31 | -9.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $55.37 | -6.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 14 industry peers | $57.38 | -3.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $71.73 | +21.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $76.00 | +28.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $69.89 | +18.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 14 industry peers | $53.61 | -9.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.88 | -2.1% | 100% | 84 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $33 | $39 | $44 | $50 | $55 |
| Conservative (5%) | $34 | $40 | $46 | $51 | $57 |
| Base Case (-1.0%) | $32 | $38 | $43 | $48 | $54 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $32 | $38 | $43 | $48 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.83 | 16.33 | 12.87 | 27.27 | 4.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.19 | 17.06 | 13.79 | 22.56 | 3.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.36 | 12.68 | 10.38 | 15.19 | 1.88 |
| P/FCF | 14.39 | 13.49 | 10.63 | 19.61 | 3.35 |
| P/FFO | 10.53 | 10.87 | 4.20 | 13.94 | 3.24 |
| P/AFFO | 14.51 | 15.86 | 5.01 | 20.49 | 5.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.63 | 4.67 | 2.47 | 7.11 | 1.77 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.73 | 2.79 | 2.23 | 3.16 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GSK's fair value at $57.88 vs the current price of $59.13, implying -2.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.33 (P10) to $64.69 (P90), with a median of $57.37.
GSK's current P/E of 16.2x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (14 peers in the group). This represents a -33.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover GSK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $53.00 (range: $53.00 — $53.00), implying -10.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (16), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GSK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2530.0% to approximately $44. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.