Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$59.13
→
Intrinsic$48.48
-18%
$30.30$48.48$84.66
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
GSK trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $59, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $30 → Bull $85. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $61 | $67 | $74 | $81 |
| 10% | $40 | $44 | $48 | $53 |
| 12% | $29 | $32 | $35 | $39 |
| 14% | $22 | $24 | $27 | $30 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($85) offers 43% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($30) implies 49% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 12% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 18% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$6.29B
Year 2$6.79B
Year 3$7.34B
Year 4$7.92B
Year 5$8.56B
Terminal$135.61B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$5.82BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.