MODEL VERDICT
Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $207.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $207.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $208.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $207.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $207.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $268.09 | +29.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $123.04 | -40.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $11.17 | -94.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $108.81 | -47.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $336.43 | +61.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $44.55 | -78.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $124.24 | -40.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $154.12 | -25.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $10.60 | -94.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $108.73 | -47.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $222.93 | +7.3% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 530× | 580× | 630× (Current) | 680× | 730× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $178 | $195 | $212 | $229 | $246 |
| Conservative (5%) | $184 | $201 | $218 | $236 | $253 |
| Base Case (-48.1%) | $91 | $99 | $108 | $116 | $125 |
| Bull Case (-65%) | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 | $84 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 196.75 | 110.76 | 13.42 | 624.94 | 217.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 46.90 | 45.09 | 19.06 | 86.30 | 22.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.43 | 23.44 | 13.45 | 43.28 | 10.53 |
| P/FCF | 176.23 | 38.99 | 23.30 | 729.79 | 279.76 |
| P/FFO | 27.48 | 22.93 | 10.92 | 46.93 | 13.89 |
| P/TBV | 37.22 | 19.49 | 4.16 | 88.01 | 44.65 |
| P/AFFO | 53.57 | 40.04 | 12.08 | 151.94 | 47.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.63 | 2.72 | 1.79 | 4.03 | 0.77 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.83 | 2.19 | 1.90 | 4.98 | 1.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GTLS's fair value at $222.93 vs the current price of $207.82, implying +7.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $222.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $174.07 (P10) to $393.06 (P90), with a median of $252.81.
GTLS's current P/E of 629.8x compares to the industry median of 33.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +1760.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 196.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
37 analysts cover GTLS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $193.81 (range: $160.00 — $240.00), implying -6.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GTLS trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (196.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GTLS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18960.0% to approximately $602. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.