MODEL VERDICT
Getty Realty Corp. (GTY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $32.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $31.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $33.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $31.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $28.27 | Pending | +8.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $29.88 | -9.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $32.74 | -0.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $33.90 | +3.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $45.37 | +38.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $21.99 | -33.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $29.06 | -11.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.33 | -1.5% | 100% | 85 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
| Base Case (-2.9%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $26 | $28 | $31 | $34 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.13 | 23.42 | 17.00 | 76.44 | 21.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.31 | 23.14 | 20.34 | 26.59 | 2.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.76 | 15.67 | 13.90 | 19.24 | 1.74 |
| P/FCF | 14.87 | 14.04 | 12.17 | 17.60 | 2.19 |
| P/FFO | 13.13 | 12.50 | 10.95 | 17.37 | 2.18 |
| P/TBV | 2.05 | 2.04 | 1.72 | 2.47 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 13.34 | 12.89 | 10.98 | 17.37 | 2.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.82 | 1.76 | 1.44 | 2.29 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.46 | 8.08 | 6.97 | 9.61 | 1.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates GTY's fair value at $32.33 vs the current price of $32.82, implying -1.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.54 (P10) to $36.98 (P90), with a median of $33.25.
GTY's current P/E of 23.4x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -3.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
13 analysts cover GTY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $33.00 (range: $33.00 — $33.00), implying +0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GTY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (36.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2860.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.