MODEL VERDICT
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $202.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $201.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $206.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $201.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $200.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $266.17 | +31.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $130.53 | -35.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $39.32 | -80.6% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $389.84 | +92.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $215.33 | +6.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $111.08 | -45.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $129.70 | -35.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $221.51 | +9.4% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $159 | $191 | $223 | $255 | $287 |
| Conservative (21%) | $170 | $204 | $239 | $273 | $307 |
| Base Case (31.5%) | $186 | $223 | $260 | $298 | $335 |
| Bull Case (43%) | $202 | $242 | $282 | $323 | $363 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.62 | 21.94 | 13.09 | 23.75 | 3.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.66 | 21.55 | 14.21 | 25.55 | 3.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.66 | 17.38 | 15.80 | 20.81 | 1.81 |
| P/FCF | 15.40 | 15.25 | 12.36 | 18.36 | 2.09 |
| P/FFO | 12.51 | 12.89 | 9.90 | 15.05 | 1.98 |
| P/TBV | 11.73 | 12.08 | 7.31 | 15.70 | 3.10 |
| P/AFFO | 16.21 | 16.87 | 13.27 | 18.88 | 2.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.59 | 11.93 | 7.20 | 15.60 | 3.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.34 | 8.24 | 5.71 | 10.26 | 1.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPG's fair value at $221.51 vs the current price of $202.44, implying +9.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $221.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $192.42 (P10) to $225.24 (P90), with a median of $208.42.
SPG's current P/E of 14.3x compares to the industry median of 27.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -48.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover SPG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $197.00 (range: $181.00 — $230.00), implying -2.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (19), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 72.5% is 30.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (42.5%), with a Z-score of +2.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$171. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SPG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (42.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1570.0% to approximately $171. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.