MODEL VERDICT
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $203.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $201.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $196.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $196.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $184.69 | Below threshold | +6.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $122.11 | -40.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $35.24 | -82.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $342.41 | +68.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $224.45 | +10.1% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $115.77 | -43.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $149.55 | -26.6% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $190.92 | -6.3% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $159 | $191 | $223 | $255 | $287 |
| Conservative (21%) | $170 | $204 | $239 | $273 | $307 |
| Base Case (31.5%) | $186 | $223 | $260 | $298 | $335 |
| Bull Case (43%) | $202 | $242 | $282 | $323 | $363 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.62 | 21.94 | 13.09 | 23.75 | 3.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.66 | 21.55 | 14.21 | 25.55 | 3.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.66 | 17.38 | 15.80 | 20.81 | 1.81 |
| P/FCF | 15.40 | 15.25 | 12.36 | 18.36 | 2.09 |
| P/FFO | 12.51 | 12.89 | 9.90 | 15.05 | 1.98 |
| P/TBV | 11.73 | 12.08 | 7.31 | 15.70 | 3.10 |
| P/AFFO | 16.21 | 16.87 | 13.27 | 18.88 | 2.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.59 | 11.93 | 7.20 | 15.60 | 3.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.34 | 8.24 | 5.71 | 10.26 | 1.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPG's fair value at $190.92 vs the current price of $203.85, implying -6.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $190.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $172.81 (P10) to $224.66 (P90), with a median of $198.39.
SPG's current P/E of 14.4x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -40.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover SPG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $194.60 (range: $173.00 — $230.00), implying -4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (19), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 72.5% is 30.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (42.5%), with a Z-score of +2.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$171. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SPG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (42.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1630.0% to approximately $171. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.